Gambling on Himself Again: Can Kim Ha-seong Land a Blockbuster FA Deal?

[MyDaily = Reporter Kim Kyung hyun] Kim Ha-seong has once again bet on himself, turning down a long-term deal and choosing free agency for the third time. After signing a one-year contract with the Atlanta Braves, projections for the 2026 season have emerged, raising the question: can Kim still secure a blockbuster contract?

Atlanta officially announced on the 16th (KST) that the club signed infielder Kim Ha-seong to a one-year, $20 million deal.

It marks Kim’s third trip to free agency. After the 2024 season, Kim agreed to a two-year, $29 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, opting for a shorter deal due to concerns surrounding his shoulder injury. Following a winding road to recovery, Kim reestablished himself in Atlanta, declined a $12 million player option, and re-entered the market—ultimately re-signing with the Braves on another one-year contract.

In the process, Kim passed on a significantly larger payday. The Athletic reported that Kim rejected a four-year, $48 million offer from the Athletics. According to the outlet, Oakland planned to use Kim primarily at second base, while Kim likely believed that maximizing his value as a shortstop would better position him for a major contract down the line.

Attention now turns to the 2026 season. Kim’s intention is clear: even after a third stint in free agency, he aims to land a lucrative, long-term deal. Before undergoing shoulder surgery, some projected Kim as a potential $100 million player. However, questions surrounding his offensive and defensive production post-surgery prevented him from receiving his desired contract.

Statistical projections offer cautious optimism. FanGraphs’ Steamer system forecasts that Kim will appear in 123 games in 2026, posting 102 hits, 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, 57 runs scored, and 49 RBIs, along with a .245 batting average and a .709 OPS.

Those numbers reflect league-average offensive production, with a projected wRC+ of exactly 100. By comparison, Kim recorded a .234 average and .649 OPS in 48 games this season, with a wRC+ of 82.

If the projection holds, Kim would be positioned for improved contract terms. From 2022 to 2024, his wRC+ ranged from 101 to 110, underscoring his consistency as a league-average hitter. Kim’s true value, however, lies in pairing that offense with elite defense. If he can boost his bat while maintaining his glove, a big payday could still be within reach.

The gamble is clear. Whether Kim Ha-seong’s third free agency run ends in a blockbuster deal remains to be seen.